Over the past 40 years, observational records have revealed that near-surface air temperatures in the Arctic have risen 2–4 times faster than the global average. This phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification (AA), is widely attributed to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂ Figure 1b). Future projections using climate models under warming scenarios consistently indicate that AA will not only persist but intensify in the coming decades. Importantly, this amplified Arctic warming has profound impacts on local weather, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities within the Arctic Circle. An ongoing and vigorous debate exists regarding its potential influence on weather extremes and climate variability in the mid-latitudes. Advancing our understanding of AA and its driving mechanisms is therefore crucial - not only for addressing regional impacts but also for understanding its broader global implications.
On the other hand, while most studies have focused on AA driven by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, relatively little attention has been given to understanding the mechanisms that link cooling scenario to AA. Under such scenarios, one might anticipate amplified Arctic cooling relative to the cooling in the rest of the globe. Recent research on the effects of aerosol emissions on global and Arctic climates has highlighted the potential for AA to occur even in cooling scenarios (Figure 1b).
The Polar Climate Change Research Group is dedicated to investigating the underlying mechanisms of AA through a combination of observational data and climate model simulations of varying complexity. Observational efforts include vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and winds measured by radiosondes released in the Arctic, alongside routine satellite observations. Simpler climate model simulations provide valuable mathematical and theoretical insights into the driving factors of AA, while intermediate models enable the inclusion of key coupling processes essential to understanding AA. For example, an energy balance model coupled with a thermodynamic sea-ice model offers a platform to explore interactions between atmospheric energy transport and sea-ice variability, both of which contribute to AA. At the highest level of complexity, global climate models incorporate the full range of interactions among Earth system components, allowing for a realistic simulation of their contributions to AA. This hierarchical modeling framework enables our group to comprehensively understand the drivers of the fast-changing Arctic climate. Our findings contribute to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project, and we actively engage with the broader scientific communities by participating in numerous polar research conferences and workshops.
Group members: Yu-Chiao Liang; You-Ting Wu; Man-Ning Chiu; Yi-Jhen Zeng; Shih-Ni Zhou; Yih Wang; Yan-Chi Wu; Ya-Fan Chung; Siou-Min Tsou; Ai-Yun Lee; Ying-Hsiu Yen, Chih-Yen Tsai
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